With a seemingly softening housing market, due to various government interventions, or to self-correction, we are heading into an interesting year for Greater Vancouver real estate. But the question of whether that's simply a gentle slowdown in the rapid growth we have seen, or a more significant downturn, seems to be a matter of divided opinion.

 

Jill Oudil, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver's President, said. “Our overall market is operating below the record-setting pace from a year ago and is in line with historical spring levels... [but] It’s a different story in our condominium and townhome markets.”

In the review below, Kevin Skipworth, Managing Broker at Dexter Associates Realty, provides unique insight into the market.

 

Read Kevin’s summary and report for sales and listings stats update for April, 2017:

 

Flat is the new up! We saw the market remain consistent in most areas over the last two months. With April homes sales pretty much matching those in March with 3,617 homes sold in April compared to 3,632 in March. In looking at homes sales over the last 10 years, the average for April is 3,467 and over the last 20 years it is 3,180. So after 8 months of a downward trend, the market has come back to being above the 10 and 20 year average. The lack of supply continues to be consistent as well, with new listings in April 2017 in Greater Vancouver down 20 per cent from April 2016. While Active Listings crept up ever so slightly to 8,428 in April from 8,211 in March, it is still well below what is typical at this time of year. The average new listings in April over the last 10 years has been 6,192 (this April being down 19 per cent) and over the last 20 years 5,766 (this April being down 13 per cent). So while sales are above average, new listings are significantly down.

 

Changes were afoot in the east with the Ontario provincial government instituting a Foreign Buyer Tax of 15 per cent for the Greater Toronto area - similar to what was put in place in Metro Vancouver in August 2016. The implementation and guidelines of the tax are far more reasonable than was put in place here in British Columbia – but many arguments can be made as to the need and actual effect of such a tax. We are now 9 months into this tax here and the effects have not proved to make homes “more affordable.” In fact controlling demand hasn’t happened in an effective way. And after a temporary destabilization of the real estate market, it has come back. Buyers want to buy, the majority of them local buyers, but inventory levels are keeping it far too competitive. And the right mix of homes are not available to match the demand. Something that needs to change.

 

“Our overall market is operating below the record-setting pace from a year ago and is in line with historical spring levels. It’s a different story in our condominium and townhome markets,” Jill Oudil, Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver president said. “Demand has been increasing for months and supply is not keeping pace. This dynamic is causing prices to increase and making multiple offer scenarios the norm.”

 

In the Fraser Valley, there were 2,230 sales of all property types in April, a decrease of 24.9 per cent compared to the 2,969 sales this time last year and a 0.8 per cent increase compared to the 2,213 sales in March 2017. Of the 2,230 sales, 438 were townhouses and 567 were apartments. Gopal Sahota, President of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board on the pace of the market in April, “Growing demand is catching up to the limited inventory we have available currently, and that’s creating a less-than-ideal environment for both buyers and sellers. People want to live in the Valley right now and we need more listings to support that.”

 

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

 

Greater Vancouver: Total Units Sold in April 2017 was 3,617 – down from 3,632 (0.5%) in March 2017, down from 4,898 (26%) in April 2016, down from 4,264 (15%) in April 2015; Active Listings are at 8,428 compared to 8,271 at this time last year; New Listings in April 2017 were down 20% compared to April 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is constant at 2 Month’s Supply (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 72% compared to 78% in April 2016 and 74% in March 2017.

 

Vancouver Westside Residential: Total Units Sold in April 2017 was 613 – down from 616 (0.5%) in March 2017, down from 878 (30%) in April 2016, down from 811 (24%) in April 2015; Active Listings are at 1,369 compared to 1,343 at this time last year; New Listings in April 2017 were down 24% compared to April 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is constant at 2 Month’s Supply (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 71% compared to 77% in April 2016 and 75% in March 2017.

 

Vancouver Eastside Residential: Total Units Sold in April 2017 was 355 – down from 384 (8%) in March 2017, down from 429 (13%) in April 2016, down from 467 (24%) in April 2015; Active Listings are at 1,093 compared to 630 at this time last year; New Listings in April 2017 were up 4% compared to April 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is constant at 3 Month’s Supply (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 60% compared to 76% in April 2016 and 73% in March 2017.

 

North Vancouver Residential Total Units Sold in April 2017 was 255 – down from 261 (2%) in March 2017, down from 359 (29%) in April 2016, down from 336 (24%) in April 2015; Active Listings are at 436 compared to 345 at this time last year; New Listings in April 2017 were down 13% compared to April 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is constant at 2 Month’s Supply (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 71% compared to 87% in April 2016 and 76% in March 2017.

 

West Vancouver Houses: Total Units Sold in April 2017 was 100 – up from 97 (3%) in March 2017, down from 142 (30%) in April 2016, down from 138 (28%) in April 2015; Active Listings are at 511 compared to 437 at this time last year; New Listings in April 2017 were down 17% compared to April 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is constant at 5 Month’s Supply (Balanced Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 45% compared to 54% in April 2016 and 46% in March 2017.

 

Richmond Residential: Total Units Sold in April 2017 was 510 – down from 537 (5%) in March 2017, down from 617 (17%) in April 2016, down from 587 (13%) in April 2015; Active Listings are at 1,086 compared to 1,225 at this time last year; New Listings in April 2017 were down 20% compared to April 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is constant at 2 Month’s Supply (Seller’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 78% compared to 76% in April 2016 and 79% in March 2017.